Future of globalization

By Jamais Cascio

The future of globalization—the cross-border trade of goods, services, and culture that has been the dominant economic practice since the end of World War II—has become highly uncertain in recent years. Although it’s unlikely globalization will go away completely, it’s also unlikely to go back to how it looked in the pre-COVID era. Several forces will determine the evolution of globalization over the next 10 to 20 years, and given the complexity and volatile nature of these forces, we can’t be certain of the outcome.

The globalization trend...and its challenges

Over the past generation, trade barriers have declined, and the exchange of goods and services has increased. The spread of the internet has greatly accelerated the globalization of culture. People around the world now embrace entertainment media, clothing trends, music, and dance without concern for political boundaries. Someone in Spain can watch a TikTok video (China) of a K-Pop band (Korea) on an iPhone (US, but made in China) and never worry about the underlying international politics and logistics networks making it possible. It’s not just about the tangible. Ideological and intellectual trends are now shared across the globe. For many, being excluded from this interconnected global superhighway is inconceivable.

While this global system has been profitable and beneficial for many, some have been left behind. When production moved to lower-cost regions, people in the abandoned locations lost jobs. Populist movements to resist and protest globalization have risen repeatedly, and in some places, the result has been a re-strengthening of trade barriers.

This era of globalization and resistance has taken place in the context of a dramatic increase in climate dangers, growing political unrest and conflict, and the emergence of transformative technologies like AI and renewable energy. Criminal and government actors have found that they can easily spread disinformation and fear on the same global social media networks used to share cat videos. Disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how brittle the systems we depend upon for global trade, like supply chains, really are.

This is the context that drives our thinking about the future of globalization. All the above issues are both critical to the shape of globalization’s future and all share the same uncertainty in how they will unfold in the years to come.

What’s next?

When we talk about the future of globalization, we’re not trying to predict the future with specificity. That’s impossible. Instead, we’re forecasting—using evidence from the past combined with present-day knowledge and an understanding of how systems work and interact—to envision plausible future scenarios. Scenario forecasts use what we’ve learned about history to recognize how the present has come about and understand how the future might be formed.

For globalization, at least three different sorts of future scenarios seem plausible:

• Re-flattening. In 2005, journalist Thomas Friedman wrote about globalization in The World Is Flat. Since then, a “flat world”—a world without metaphorical speed bumps to slow trade or walls to block it entirely—has become a commonplace way of talking about a globalization-focused economy. In this scenario, the pushback on globalization seen in recent years—pushback against that flat world—diminishes due to changing philosophies or emerging instruments of political and economic power. This would be a return to the trade-barrier-reducing trends of the 1990s and early 2000s, a period that gave rise to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in 1994 and SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) in 2004.

This kind of future might emerge when the accelerating global climate emergency forces international cooperation, and trade barriers are seen as roadblocks to rapid economic and environmental action. We could also see a resurgence of globalization coming from a large-scale focus on national safety nets, where advanced models such as Universal Basic Income depend on economic abundance. Strong national safety nets might lessen resistance to trade agreements that would reduce or eliminate jobs.

• Put on your own mask first. Emergency instructions on airplanes are clear: If oxygen masks drop down, you must put on your own mask before helping others. In this scenario of the future, increased global chaos—whether caused by climate disasters, political violence, or something entirely unexpected—demands that governments focus on internal stability. Historically, countries often use trade barriers to protect or boost domestic industries, such as with Brexit in 2020 and with the mid-2020s tariff policies in the US. Although these policies proved highly controversial, this possible future relies on a widespread acceptance of the “save yourself first” philosophy.

This kind of future might emerge if domestic crises have greater importance than near-term economic gains. It could also emerge if there is ongoing, serious hostility between major economic powers. Although this might resemble North Korea-style isolation on a global scale, it’s likely that some global services and cultural connections would remain. Nonetheless, even these would be subject to close monitoring and tight control if national leaders believed that they threaten political stability or national security. One big question in this potential future: If globalization were dismantled, would it ever return?

• Virtual gates. In a gated community, the homes, neighborhoods, even businesses inside its walls are protected from outside dangers. But what if the homes, neighborhoods, and businesses were nowhere near each other? In this possible future, communities of nations with no geographic borders or regional connection allow free trade within their gates, but erect strong barriers against those outside the walls. This structure might function similarly to regional trade agreements like NAFTA or the Schengen Area, but without relying on physical proximity or regional identity. One historical analogy might be the “Imperial Preference” system of the pre-World War II British Empire, which allowed preferential trade among the countries of the British Commonwealth. One present-day signal of this is the growing speculation about Canada potentially joining the European Union.

This kind of future might emerge when regional disputes put trade barriers between neighbors (who then seek free trade partners elsewhere), or when digital goods and services provide significantly more income than physical shipments. The disconnection of free trade from location could have surprising implications for international politics. Smaller countries may move between closed groups seeking out momentary advantages, while larger countries may mix threats of force with market and financial temptations.

Imagining tomorrows

These aren’t the only possible futures for globalization; events such as a large-scale international war or an even deadlier pandemic would render these three potential scenarios obsolete. A technological breakthrough that upends established economic theory (such as molecular manufacturing or true AGI (artificial general intelligence) would be similarly disruptive. But for now, absent massive political or economic earthquakes, these are the likely paths ahead.

Nonetheless, it’s important to remember that nothing is static. These possible futures of globalization aren’t end-states. Rather, they’re the structures that might emerge from the consequences of present-day decisions and events. Each future might persist for multiple generations or be pushed aside in just a decade thanks to some entirely new development. The goal of imagining the future isn’t to predict it.  Instead, the goal is to understand how history can help us envision the future and how the future reality you believe in can be achieved.

About the author: One of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, Jamais Cascio explores our environment, technology, and culture to build plausible future scenarios. As Distinguished Fellow at Institute for the Future, he created the BANI framework for understanding global chaos. He works, writes, and speaks around the world on issues facing the global future.

Cover image: Global air and sea routes. A world map showing commercial shipping routes (in green) and air traffic (in blue). By Dominic Alves, CC BY 2.0.